The SGI Index measures how vulnerable an economy is to shocks — not when a crisis arrives, but how severe the damage would be if one does. The score is based on publicly available data from BIS, IMF, ECB, OECD and national statistics bureaus.
Three pillars, one score
The score (0-100, higher = more fragile) is built from three pillars with empirically grounded weights:
- Financial (45%) — government debt/GDP, private debt/GDP and credit efficiency. The academic consensus (Schularick & Taylor 2012, BIS Working Paper 1003) is that private credit growth is historically the single best predictor of financial crises.
- Structural (35%) — central bank balance sheet/GDP and the share of zombie companies. A bloated balance sheet and many "undead" firms reduce shock resilience.
- Social (20%) — house price/income ratio, institutional trust and wealth inequality. Important for the political durability of reforms, but lagging — a consequence rather than a cause.
What the score is not
The SGI is not a recession tool and not a trading signal. A score of 70 does not mean "crash within 12 months" — it means that if a shock arrives (rate shock, geopolitical event, energy), the system has less buffer to absorb it. Comparable to a patient's health: a high score does not say when someone gets sick, but it does say how well they would withstand illness.
Open, traceable methodology
The complete formula, every data point and every source citation is visible in the dashboard. No black box.